La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale     

Jean-Claude Andr  Jean-Yves Caneill  Michel Dqu  Philippe Rogel  Laurent Terray  Yves Tourre 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2002,334(16):1115

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.  相似文献   

Construction and analysis of higher order finite difference schemes for the 1D wave equation     

Laurent Anné  Patrick Joly  Quang Huy Tran 《Computational Geosciences》2000,4(3):207-249

In this article, we propose to: 1. Establish most of the properties conjectured in [2] about the higher order finite difference approximation of the 1D Laplace operator. 2. Generalize to any order the fourth-order accurate scheme in space and time of Shubin and Bell [20] and Cohen [6]. For this new family of 2m–2m schemes, we establish, via elementary mathematics, various stability and dispersion results that are helpful to compare these schemes to the 2–2m schemes of Anné et al. [2]. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Florian Pappenberger  Patrick Matgen  Keith J. Beven  Jean-Baptiste Henry  Laurent Pfister  Paul Fraipont de 《Advances in water resources》2006

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.  相似文献   

DEVEX-disdrometer evaluation experiment: Basic results and implications for hydrologic studies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Witold F. Krajewski  Anton Kruger  Clelia Caracciolo  Peter Golé  Laurent Barthes  Jean-Dominique Creutin  Jean-Yves Delahaye  Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos  Fred Ogden  Jean-Paul Vinson 《Advances in water resources》2006

Increasing our understanding of the small scale variability of drop size distributions (DSD), and therefore of several bulk characteristics of rainfall processes, has major implications for our interpretation of the remote sensing based estimates of precipitation and its uncertainty. During the spring and summer of 2002 the authors conducted the DEVEX experiment (disdrometer evaluation experiment) to compare measurements of natural rain made with three different types of disdrometers collocated at the Iowa City Municipal Airport in Iowa City, Iowa in the Midwestern United States. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the instruments rather than analysis of the hydrometeorological aspects of the observed events. The comparison demonstrates discrepancies between instruments. The authors discuss the systematic and random effects in terms of rainfall quantities, drop size distribution properties, and the observed drop size vs. velocity relationships. Since the instruments were collocated, the effects of the natural variability of rain are reduced some with time integration, isolating the instrumental differences. The authors discuss the status of DSD measurement technologies and the implications for a range of hydrologic applications from remote sensing of rainfall to atmospheric deposition to soil erosion and sediment transport in the environment. The data set collected during the DEVEX experiment is made available to the research community.  相似文献   

The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection   总被引：3，自引：11，他引：3  

Frédéric Hourdin  Ionela Musat  Sandrine Bony  Pascale Braconnot  Francis Codron  Jean-Louis Dufresne  Laurent Fairhead  Marie-Angèle Filiberti  Pierre Friedlingstein  Jean-Yves Grandpeix  Gerhard Krinner  Phu LeVan  Zhao-Xin Li  François Lott 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(7-8):787-813

The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL–CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley–Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke’s convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel’s scheme improves the representation of the Hadley–Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke’s parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model.  相似文献   

Decoupling of arsenic and iron release from ferrihydrite suspension under reducing conditions: a biogeochemical model     

André Burnol  Francis Garrido  Philippe Baranger  Catherine Joulian  Marie-Christine Dictor  Françoise Bodénan  Guillaume Morin  Laurent Charlet 《Geochemical transactions》2007,8(1):12

High levels of arsenic in groundwater and drinking water are a major health problem. Although the processes controlling the release of As are still not well known, the reductive dissolution of As-rich Fe oxyhydroxides has so far been a favorite hypothesis. Decoupling between arsenic and iron redox transformations has been experimentally demonstrated, but not quantitatively interpreted. Here, we report on incubation batch experiments run with As(V) sorbed on, or co-precipitated with, 2-line ferrihydrite. The biotic and abiotic processes of As release were investigated by using wet chemistry, X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption and genomic techniques. The incubation experiments were carried out with a phosphate-rich growth medium and a community of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria under strict anoxic conditions for two months. During the first month, the release of Fe(II) in the aqueous phase amounted to only 3% to 10% of the total initial solid Fe concentration, whilst the total aqueous As remained almost constant after an initial exchange with phosphate ions. During the second month, the aqueous Fe(II) concentration remained constant, or even decreased, whereas the total quantity of As released to the solution accounted for 14% to 45% of the total initial solid As concentration. At the end of the incubation, the aqueous-phase arsenic was present predominately as As(III) whilst X-ray absorption spectroscopy indicated that more than 70% of the solid-phase arsenic was present as As(V). X-ray diffraction revealed vivianite Fe(II)₃(PO₄)₂.8H₂O in some of the experiments. A biogeochemical model was then developed to simulate these aqueous- and solid-phase results. The two main conclusions drawn from the model are that (1) As(V) is not reduced during the first incubation month with high Eh values, but rather re-adsorbed onto the ferrihydrite surface, and this state remains until arsenic reduction is energetically more favorable than iron reduction, and (2) the release of As during the second month is due to its reduction to the more weakly adsorbed As(III) which cannot compete against carbonate ions for sorption onto ferrihydrite. The model was also successfully applied to recent experimental results on the release of arsenic from Bengal delta sediments.  相似文献   

Zircon U-Pb geochronology and geochemistry of Late Devonian–Carboniferous granitoids in NW Iran: implications for the opening of Paleo-Tethys     

Ali Mohammadi  Mohssen Moazzen  Anna Lechmann  Oscar Laurent 《International Geology Review》2020,62(15):1931-1948

ABSTRACT

We present zircon U-Pb crystallization ages combined with bulk rock major and trace element geochemistry and Sr-Nd-Pb and zircon in-situ Hf isotopic compositions of the Amand and Moro granitoid intrusions in northwest Iran. The Amand and Moro plutons include granite and syeno-diorite with LA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon ages of 367 ± 6.8 Ma and 351 ± 1.3 Ma, respectively, representative of Late Devonian-Early Carboniferous magmatic activity in NW Iran. Geochemical characteristics such as typical enrichments in alkalis, Nb, Zr, Ga and Y, depletion in P and Sr and fractionated REE patterns with high Ga/Al ratios and Eu negative anomalies are consistent with A-type magmatic signatures. The granitoids are classified as A₂-type and within-plate granitoids. The bulk rock geochemistry (enrichments in Th, Nb and, high Th/Yb, Zr/Y ratios) along with low variation of ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd_(i) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) ratios and positive zircon εHf_(t) support the role of a mantle plume component for the evolution of the Amand and Moro A-type granitoids in an extensional tectonic environment. In fitting with wider regional knowledge, this magmatism occurred during Paleo-Tethys opening in northern Gondwana.  相似文献   

Rainfall and the 6–9 day wave-like disturbance in West-Africa during summer 1989     

A. Viltard  J. Oubuih  P. de Felice  H. Laurent 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1998,66(3-4):229-234

Summary Using ECMWF analyses and daily rain amounts of 569 stations in Western Africa for summer 1989, the study documents the composite structure of the 6–9 day oscillation and its influence on rain. Rain is modulated by vorticity as displayed in the wave composite. There are rainfall maxima coincident with cyclonic vorticity and rainfall minima coincident with anticyclonic vorticity at the 700hPa level, at 17.5°N and 7.5°N.With 6 Figures  相似文献   

The mesoscale variability in the Caribbean Sea. Part I: Simulations and characteristics with an embedded model     

Julien Jouanno  Julio Sheinbaum  Bernard Barnier  Jean-Marc Molines  Laurent Debreu  Florian Lemari 《Ocean Modelling》2008,23(3-4):82-101

The variability in the Caribbean Sea is investigated using high resolution (1/15°) general circulation model experiments. For the first time in this region, simulations were carried out with a 2-way nested configuration of the NEMO primitive equation model. A coarse North Atlantic grid (1/3°) reproduces the main features of the North Atlantic and Equatorial circulation capable of influencing ocean dynamics in the Caribbean Sea. This numerical study highlights strong dynamical differences among basins and modifies the view that dynamics are homogeneous over the whole Caribbean Basin. The Caribbean mean flow is shown to organize in two intense jets flowing westward along the northern and southern boundaries of the Venezuela Basin, which merge in the center of the Colombia Basin. Diagnostics of model outputs show that width, depth and strength of baroclinic eddies increase westward from the Lesser Antilles to the Colombia Basin. The widening and strengthening to the west is consistent with altimetry data and drifter observations. Although influenced by the circulation in the Colombia Basin, the variability in the Cayman Basin (which also presents a westward growth from the Chibcha Channel) is deeper and less energetic than the variability in the Colombia/Venezuela Basins. Main frequency peaks for the mesoscale variability present a westward shift, from roughly 50 days near the Lesser Antilles to 100 days in the Cayman Basin, which is associated with growth and merging of eddies.  相似文献   

Generation?2 testbed of Fresnel imager: first results on the sky     

Laurent Koechlin  Jean-Pierre Rivet  Paul Deba  Truswin Raksasataya  Thierry Gharsa  Ren?? Gili 《Experimental Astronomy》2011,30(2-3):165-182

  相似文献